The post WWII international system was built on the division of the world between the West (US plus Western Europe plus willing secondary players elsewhere) and the East (the USSR and her European satellites, communist China, and other ‘friendlies’ here in there among the mainly underdeveloped 3rd and 4th world sub-states).
The collapse of Sovietism in 1990 radically altered that arrangement and pushed the post-Soviet Russian Federation from “superpower” status to “great power” existence mainly because of economic reasons but, also, the inherent socio-political weaknesses of a country comprising an array of different ethnicities, each with its own lengthy history, linguistic identity, and social organization.
Mother Russia, however, despite the earth-shaking impact of the USSR’s collapse in literally a few days, continued to maintain her core military strength, not to mention her communist-era system of domestic police control, and to demand Russian citizens continue being as obedient to the Motherland as during Soviet times.
The reasons behind Putin’s war on Ukraine have already been analyzed beyond exhaustion. If the Ukraine war was to be fought in an “aseptic” laboratory experimental environment of Moscow vs Kiev only,
the Ukrainians would have been dead and buried in a matter of weeks, if not days. But 2022 is part of an entirely new, rather teratomorphic, age of severe global instabilities emerging primarily from the expanding malaise affecting the US and, by inevitable extension, “united’ Europe as well.
Thus, Western leaders face a blurry image of what occurs in a world—and what type of response is required in pursuit of a stability that, one hopes, may turn out to be longer lived than expected.
This is, in large part, the core reason behind the rapidly created illusion that somehow Ukraine could prevail in her struggle against Putin’s invasion
only if the rest of us “free people” offer her a determined helping hand. It was thus only a matter of time for the chorus of pro-Ukrainian Americano-Europeans to begin beating the drums of war in defense of Ukrainian “democracy.” Lingering Cold War triggers provided the initial fuse that quickly graduated to the illusion Ukraine could be a “winner” against the Russians if only she was stuffed with modern Western-made weaponry to kill a visibly superior invader dead.
Both American and “united” Europe leaders can’t be accused of being dedicated students of war and what it really takes to win one.
Both sides of the Atlantic live in the fancies of “global interconnectivity” plus the dangerous belief that the “Western way of life” can be comfortably sustained by exporting almost all mainstream manufacturing, plus the production of consumer goods and other critical components, like microchips and microprocessors, to semi-developed 4th world countries, and especially the 21st century’s totalitarian behemoth called China, home of the first ever communism with capitalist operational targets.
And, by adding here the US-fueled attempt to undermine and overturn established Western philosophical, political, religious, and social traditions, via indefensible “woke” teratomorphic theories—which already influence decisions of life and death, even at the highest level—you can visualize the image of a “Western world” having lost its bearings completely, and being unable to successfully estimate and manage key questions of international security among so many others.
It should thus come as no surprise that those who professionally
follow the Ukraine battlefield picture see a very different image than the one peddled by American, and some European, political leaders: Zelenskyy and his troops are steadily squeezed into a corner by a superior power which, for all its many operational and tactical mistakes, possesses the sheer bulk of armaments, and “boots on the ground,” that have turned the Ukrainian battleground into a slaughterhouse for a numerically and materially lesser opponent.
Ukraine possesses not enough human resources to affect a “surge” under this relentless pounding, nor can it seriously expect to turn the tables by the mere massive infusion of Western-made sophisticated armaments. The bodies needed to man the ramparts, and use the imported weapons, are either not there or unable to sufficiently react under the enemy’s overwhelming battlefield hammer blows.
It is no surprise, therefore, that “united” Europe and NATO both are (reluctantly) increasingly question whether this war to “defend democracy” is worth the growing expenditures to keep Zelenskyy in power (without of course admitting this openly).
Both Germany and France have already expressed their preference of giving room to diplomacy as the means of terminating the conflict.
Sweden and Finland’s entry into NATO is being blocked by Turkish neo-sultan Erdogan, acting in favor of Moscow and pushes the Alliance into a corner its leadership loath to confront—but despite this thinly-veiled Turkish gangsterism NATO leadership still finds Turkiye’s “concerns” legitimate!
And Turkey, by running rampant against Greece, reminds all Ukraine may be soon sidelined by an abrupt Turkish Islamist war of conquest in the Eastern Med, which will require a vastly greater Western intervention to control neo-sultan Erdogan’s barbaric lunacies from graduating into global war.
So, the question of escalating Western boots-on-the-ground
intervention in Ukraine is again rearing its ugly head as the current guns-and-materials-only US-prompted “solution” is gradually squeezed into defeat thanks to Russian battlefield persistence—and Putin’s (not surprising) willingness to absorb casualties reminiscent of Stalin’s WWII suicidal not-a-step-backward orders.
What could follow next is anybody’s guess and remains both terrifying and almost unbelievable to contemplate.
Ukraine's at Risk of Losing War With Russia: Military Official
Russia's attack on Ukraine has become a war of artillery, and Ukraine is at risk of losing, according to the deputy head of Ukrainian military intelligence.
Vadym Skibitsky told The Guardian in an interview published Friday that Ukraine is now heavily reliant on weapons provided by the West in its counteroffensive against Russia. Russia, meanwhile, currently outranks Ukraine in terms of artillery supplies, according to the official.
"Everything now depends on what [the West] gives us," Skibitsky said. "Ukraine has one artillery piece to 10 to 15 Russian artillery pieces. Our Western partners have given us about 10 percent of what they have."
While there are indications that neither Russia nor Ukraine is currently poised to score a decisive victory in the conflict, Skibitsky's comments indicate that weapons, or a lack thereof, may serve as a tipping point in the ongoing "artillery war." Maps with assessments of territorial control in Ukraine, which are shared daily by the Institute for the Study of War, show that Russia and Ukraine have only been gaining and losing land in small increments in recent weeks.
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Ukraine’s high casualty rate could bring war to tipping point
Analysis: Kyiv’s fighting strength is stretched, yet Russia could now benefit from a pause in fighting
Any way you count it, the figures are stark: Ukrainian casualties are running at a rate of somewhere between 6oo and 1,000 a day. One presidential adviser, Oleksiy Arestovych, told the Guardian this week it was 150 killed and 800 wounded daily; another, Mykhaylo Podolyak, told the BBC that 100 to 200 Ukrainian troops a day were being killed.
It represents an extraordinary loss of human life and capacity for the defenders, embroiled in a defence of the eastern city of Sievierodonetsk that this week turned into a losing battle. Yet the city was also arguably a place that Ukraine could have retreated from to the more defensible Lysychansk, across the Siverski Donets River, the sort of defensive situation that Ukraine has fared far better in.
The sheer number – more than 20,000 casualties a month – raises questions about what state Ukraine’s army will be in if the war drags on into the autumn. The same is true for the Russians too, of course. But the invaders already control large chunks of Ukraine, and they can pause the fighting with the territorial upper hand.