Greece: Navigating rough seas
PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis travels to Washington as Turkey rears her ugly head again....
Ever since she got rid of the Ottoman yoke in 1827, Greece enjoyed the “benign protection” of foreign powers. Great Britain was Greece’s main “godmother” until 1947, when she passed the torch to the United States. American arms and money put an end to the catastrophic communist uprising 1946-49 that sought to pull Hellas behind the Iron Curtain.
The US embassy in Athens thus became the “unofficial” consigliere to Greek governments until the collapse of a military junta that ruled the country between 1967 and summer 1974.
Post-junta, Greece entered her European orbit guided by France, a connection that eventually led to Hellas’s admission into the European Economic Community (EEC) and its successor European Union (EU)—with Paris strongly rooting for Greek admission.
But things went terribly wrong, beginning in 1980, thanks to pervasive incompetence and oligarchic corruption of a string of mainly socialist governments culminating in the 2010 disastrous sovereign debt collapse that shackled Greece to debt repayments well into the 22nd century.
The overseer of this horror was Germany with (now retired) Angela Merkel methodically building the shackles holding the corrupt Greeks securely in debtor’s prison.
But, Putin’s War suddenly intervened to push Germany aside and restore American global prominence. Greece, already a ping pong ball in the creditor game, needs to “realign” back under the American umbrella as Europe sinks in her own severe uncertainties fed by the Ukraine apocalyptic debacle.
PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis, the scion of a political family with strong German ties, is US-educated and firmly “pro-Europe” and “pro-West.” His government has already renegotiated a US-Greek defense cooperation agreement that ties Hellas to US security interests and aims as never before. US forces (and weapons) are now permanently established near the Greek-Turkish border, a fact that triggers Russian, so far only diplomatic, growling.
Given Ole Man Biden’s mental and physical incapacities, Mitsotakis will have to deal with the Democrats’ guiding White House cabal, which drives the usual hard bargains that no Greek politician can successfully handle or oppose.
The toughest part of this “negotiation” would be trying to convince the Americans not to embrace (yet again) Turkey’s outlandish and extremely dangerous demands in the Aegean.
Neo-sultan Erdogan has already pricked NATO (and Washington) with his opposition to Sweden and Finland joining the club, but Greece won’t be able to exploit this latest Erdogan caprice given the long US tradition of babying Turkey because of her (imaginary) “great power” status.
To sweeten the pill of keeping its cards close to its chest, the Biden administration took an unusual—and unprecedented—symbolic step of inviting Mitsotakis to address a joint session of the US Congress.
The Greek PM will share this honor with a long list of previous foreign speakers. Mitsotakis’s spokesman snatched the opportunity to declare this invitation constitutes “…a vote of confidence in Greece as a stable factor of stability in the Balkans, the Mediterranean, and southeastern Europe.”
I’m not holding my breath over this visit. Despite monotonous reassurances from Washington and NATO that Turkey’s strident demands are just demands to be recorded and largely ignored, there are several “nuances” of this Turkish push the US “deeper” establishment may be willing to address with a positive attitude viz.:
Turkey continues to press for re-inclusion in the F-35 program as both parts supplier and potential buyer. Any positive readjustment re. these demands in Ankara’s favor stands to produce serious profits for US manufacturers, who are naturally in favor of US “understanding” the Turkish position.
Turkey’s growling against Sweden and Finland joining NATO may trigger Alliance “unobtrusive remedial adjustments” that will strengthen Turkish claims of Great Power status offering Ankara significant propaganda and diplomatic gains.
Mitsotakis, for all the US kudos extended to Greece, will be hard pressed to ask for, and secure,
specific US operational counteraction
in case of a Turkish attempt to snatch uninhabited Greek islets in the Aegean.Similalry, the Greek PM will run into trouble attempting to oppose US demands for the transfer of Greek modern military assets to Ukraine that the Greek armed forces can ill afford.
Mitsotakis attempting to highlight Turkey’s attack on Sweden and Finland over NATO membership may trigger unwanted counteraction from the US pro-Turkey deep US diplomatic cabal that has never ceased its push in favor of Ankara’s interests.
Mitsotakis is already planning for the next election in roughly a year’s time from today. He will exploit the Washington visit as “proof” of international statesmanship and his “robust” promotion of Greek interests with the Allies. Greek polls, never a reliable measure of things, still show Mitsotakis’s New Democracy enjoying minimum 8-point advantage over the rabble-rousing neo-communist SYRIZA party that caused serious damage upon Greece during its four years in power 2015-19.
Despite her disasters in the hands of communists, Greece still retains a particular form of political left-leaning autism that can easily allow a return to “socialism with a friendly face” (and complete anarchy and violence throughout the land).
Prayers alone won’t suffice.